OK, I wanted to see if ChatGPT would give an answer, and it did not disappoint, as it even gave calculations. So the question was “If Alex Rodriguez never received a suspension in MLB, what would have been the expected number of homeruns he would have hit in his career?”
I guessed 733 before I submitted the question.
To estimate the expected number of home runs Alex Rodriguez would have hit in his career if he had never received a suspension in Major League Baseball (MLB), we need to make certain assumptions and consider various factors.
As of my knowledge cutoff in September 2021, Alex Rodriguez officially hit 696 home runs during his MLB career. However, he did receive multiple suspensions, including a full-season suspension in 2014 for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. If we assume that he missed approximately 162 games due to suspension (equivalent to a full MLB season), we can attempt to estimate the impact on his career home run total.
To make a reasonable estimation, we can calculate Rodriguez’s average home run rate per game played before his suspensions and then apply that rate to the games he missed. However, it’s important to note that player performance can fluctuate throughout a career, and assumptions made here may not perfectly reflect reality.
Let’s assume that Rodriguez’s career home run rate before his suspensions remained consistent. By dividing his total career home runs (696) by the number of games played (2,784), we find that he averaged approximately 0.25 home runs per game.
If we then apply this average to the 162 games missed due to suspension, we can estimate that he would have hit around 40 additional home runs during that period (0.25 home runs/game * 162 games = 40.5 home runs).
Therefore, if Rodriguez had never received a suspension in MLB, the expected number of home runs he might have hit in his career could have been approximately 736 (696 + 40).
It’s important to remember that this estimation relies on several assumptions and simplifications, and it’s impossible to know the exact outcome. Actual results could have varied based on various factors such as aging, injuries, changes in performance, and other unforeseen circumstances.
ChatGRT (Ground Rule Triple) 